Please follow and like us:

By Princess Eugene Majuru

The analysis focuses on the final, grid-independent Phase 2 target: a 1 MWp Solar PV System with 1 MWh Battery Storage.

1. Estimated Capital Expenditure (CapEx)

CapEx for large-scale solar projects varies widely based on component quality, installation complexity, and regulatory environment.

Component Target Capacity Estimated Cost Range (USD) Source/Notes

Solar PV System (1 MWp) 1,000 kW $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 Commercial scale in the region averages $1.00 – $1.50/Wp.

Battery Storage (1 MWh) 1,000 kWh $400,000 – $550,000 Based on global industrial Li-ion pricing (~$400–$550/kWh).

Hybrid Inverters & BoS (Supporting Systems) $250,000 – $400,000 Balance of System (BoS) including hybrid inverters, racking, cabling, microgrid EMS.

Total Estimated CapEx $1,650,000 – $2,450,000 This is the projected cost for the full system.

2. Projected Annual Energy Production and Value

This calculation estimates the value of energy the 1 MWp system will generate, replacing both expensive diesel and grid power.

A. Annual Generation Estimate

Zimbabwe’s high solar irradiance allows for an average of approximately 5.5 peak sun hours (PSH) per day.

Annual Energy (kWh)=Capacity (kW)×PSH (hours/day)×365 days×Performance Ratio

Capacity=1,000 kW

PSH=5.5 hours

Performance Ratio≈0.80 (accounting for losses)

Annual Energy=1,000 kW×5.5×365×0.80≈1,606,000 kWh (1.6 GWh)

B. Annual Savings (Diesel and Grid Avoidance)

Assuming the new system replaces energy that would otherwise come from the grid or from the generator (especially during load-shedding).

Average Grid Tariff (Commercial/Block 5): The maximum ZESA tariff is roughly $0.26/kWh (based on residential rates for 500+ units, commercial rates are often higher).

Diesel Cost: Commercial diesel price in Zimbabwe is approximately $1.55 per litre. A typical generator consumes about 0.28 litres of diesel per kWh produced. This translates to an effective generation cost of:

Diesel Cost per kWh=0.28 L/kWh×$1.55/L≈$0.43/kWh

Energy Source Replaced Assumed Cost per kWh (USD) Total Avoided Cost

Diesel Power (Critical Load) $0.43/kWh High Savings

Grid Power (Non-Critical Load) $0.26/kWh Moderate Savings

Assuming the Parliament building requires a blended rate of ≈∗∗$0.30/kWh∗∗ (given the mixture of high-cost diesel backup and moderate grid tariffs):

Annual Savings=1,606,000 kWh×$0.30/kWh≈$481,800

3. Payback Period (ROI) Estimate

The Simple Payback Period (SPP) estimates the time required for annual savings to recover the initial CapEx.

Scenario Estimated CapEx Annual Savings Simple Payback Period (SPP)

Low CapEx $1,650,000 $481,800 3.4 Years

High CapEx $2,450,000 $481,800 5.1 Years

Conclusion: The estimated Simple Payback Period is between 3.4 and 5.1 years.

This is significantly faster than the industry standard for commercial solar projects (often 6–10 years) due to Zimbabwe’s high operational cost of power, particularly the frequent and expensive use of diesel generators during load-shedding. This justifies Dr. Mabhurukwa’s claim of a 7–10 year ROI, as real-world scenarios must also factor in maintenance, insurance, and the gradual degradation of battery capacity.

This project is financially highly viable and provides crucial energy security that cannot be monetized.

Please follow and like us:

Comments

comments