By STAFF REPORTER.
HARARE – (News of The South)- Zimbabwe is likely to continue on a path of political polarization, protests, political violence at the hands of the state and economic deterioration, a new report shows.
This came out in a report, titled A New Zimbabwe – Assessing Continuity and Change after (Robert) Mugabe by Alexander Noyes. This report takes stock of the southern African nation’s political and economic reform efforts since President Robert Mugabe’s departure and offers recommendations for how to help the country recover.
Research was sponsored by the James Harmon Foundation and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the defense agencies, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations.
Since assuming office Mnangagwa promised several swift economic reforms aimed at jump starting the southern African nation’s economy. He vowed to crack down on corruption, expand the economy through trade and investment, deal with massive external debt, and offer compensation on land reform.
“In short, despite some progress in certain areas, Mnangagwa’s economic reform efforts are incomplete or falling short across a variety of sectors, including the new currency regime, inflation, corruption, land, mining, and privatization,” the report stated.
“Rampant political interference and intraparty splits are also hampering progress. Indeed, given Zimbabwe’s enduring patronage-based economy, where economic fortunes continue to be determined not by business acumen but by allegiance to ZANU-PF politicians, politics and economics cannot be separated in Zimbabwe.”
The report indicated that politics and economics are inextricably linked in the country.
“With the old guard and the military still firmly in power—and benefiting from their perch atop the highly cartelized and patronage-based economy— under present conditions, genuine reform is unlikely in the next one to three years,” it said.
A much-discussed national dialogue to resolve the current political crisis is unlikely to bear fruit in the short term, the report said, because of entrenched positions on both sides of the political spectrum.
“Mnangagwa will need to continue to carefully navigate factional disputes between his old guard and newer technocrats in the party, particularly on the economic front. However, as long as Mnangagwa does not cross his military backers or become deeply unpopular in the run-up to elections, he is likely to remain in power and will be the favorite in the 2023 vote.
“The military is unlikely to relinquish its ascendant power without a fight and, therefore, will likely endure as a political kingmaker for years to come. Unless Mnangagwa becomes exceedingly unpopular or takes aim at the military, the risk of a coup is real but moderate under current circumstances,” it said.
The report highlighted that MDC, is constrained by frequent arrests, harassment, and abductions by security forces, along with a lack of resources and grassroots organizing structures. According to the report, the party is likely to continue to stage demonstrations in urban strongholds but, under current conditions, will likely remain unable to mobilize countrywide protests that could put significant pressure on the government.
“This dynamic could change if the opposition is able to build a more cohesive, nationwide organization that could tap into growing discontent with the economic situation. Protests are likely to continue to be suppressed violently by security forces”.
Without fundamental reforms that would end political interference and unlock international support, “economic conditions are likely to continue to deteriorate, exacerbated—especially in the short term— by ongoing drought and a sharp decrease in consumer demand,” the report said.
“If current conditions hold, Zimbabwe is likely to see continued inflation, currency depreciation, price increases, and limited growth over the next one to three years.”
GDP growth, currently at –7%, is likely to rebound to the 2–3% range once the drought is over. However, price increases and shortages of power, fuel, and food are likely to continue to spark demonstrations, particularly in urban areas.
“Given the expected lack of genuine reforms, international sanctions are likely to remain in place,” it said.
Investment in Zimbabwe is a high risk, which will continue to deter potential investors in the near term.
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