By Thabo Moyo.
Johannesburg, South Africa (News Of The South) – Despite another outbreak of fighting between opposition Mozambique
National Resistance (Renamo) guerrillas and ruling party, the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo), countries in the region are still maintaining a sit and see attitude on the economic front, with countries like Zimbabwe saying they will only intervene when they feel their economic interests are under threat.
In the 1990’s during the Mozambican civil war, the Zimbabwean government had to deploy its troops to the coastal town to protect the Beira Corridor, which most of its exports and oil supplies were entering the landlocked country.
Zimbabwean Information Minister Christopher Mushowe said while his government is closely watching the developments in Mozambique, which have the potential to negatively affect the country already battered economy, they are not panicking yet.
“We have not been officially notified of any fighting of security instability in that country,” Mushowe told News of the South recently.
“So as far as we are concerned everything is fine for now. But in any case as and when we respond to any insecurities, we do so to protect our people and economic interests not on behalf of anyone.”
However a Johannesburg-based economic analyst, Walter Nsunguli
Mbongolwane, warns that the escalating infighting between the old civil war foes could have serious economic repercussions for Zimbabwe.
Two decades after the end of Mozambique’s bloody civil war and over 18 months after the ruling Frelimo, won elections in October 2014, tensions have been running high with opposition the Renamo guerrillas.
In an escalation of a simmering conflict between these foes, army operations began in Tete Province in October 2015, and thousands have fled to bordering Malawi fearing violence and harassment from government soldiers, mass graves discovered and the situation is still evolving in Mozambique – one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, which is looking to escape years of poverty and conflict by tapping into its huge energy resources.
We should remember that Zimbabwe’s oil pipeline, which runs through the Beira Corridor, supplies most of the country’s fuel needs while Beira is the country’s closest port and vital access point for goods. This infighting needs to end as we are briskly moving towards a silent civil war which will collapse the economy for many countries in the
region,” said Mbongolwane.
And it is not only Zimbabwe that will be affected but other countries in the Southern Africa like, Zambia, Malawi, Botswana and the Democratic Republic of Congo who use the coastal town as an international trade gateway providing the shortest distance to the regional sea ports of Beira, Nacala and Maputo respectively.
According to Mbongolwane, these countries enjoy land transport distance advantage, which cut down transport costs for international trade by between US$30/t and US$50/t.
“These saving are clearly an enormous boost to international trade competitiveness for the region.”
The Beira Corridor transport system’s importance to the southern African economy is shown by the more that US$ 400 million investment it got for container and oil terminals, road upgrades between 1986 and
1996.
Though Mbongolwane said it is still early days yet to quantify the economic effects, the renewed conflict is likely to also result in a rapid decline in foreign direct investment leading to fewer projects and less employment creation.
Agriculture, which is a backbone for most southern African states, is likely to be disrupted, while tourism another top revenue earner is likely to go down because of the renewed conflict.
“The refugee crisis will worsen and inter country trade will fall,” added Mbongolwane. The Mozambican economy itself, which has been enjoying year on year economic growth, resulting huge investments and job creation between 2009 and 2014, stands to lose from the resumed hostilitiesMore than 50% of the Beira port throughput is now generated by
Mozambican trade, whereas before 1995 it was less than 20%, with the key objective of the regional component Mozambique Regional Gateway Programme to ensure that recent transport corridor developments and investments in Mozambique also translate into trade benefits for the Southern African countries.
Comments
About Author
