By Ivan Okuda, Emma Mutaizibwa & Yasiin Mugerwa
Luweero. Luweero District, in the north of Kampala, is the heart of Luweero Triangle, where a fledgling guerilla army led by Yoweri Museveni, pitched camp between 1981 to 1986, to launch a five-year bush war that brought the NRM government to power.
Aided by the Tanzanian army in 1979, Mr Museveni among other leaders of armed Uganda groups exiled in Kenya and Tanzania during the 1970s, ousted Iddi Amin, only for him to return to the jungles of Luweero Triangle in 1981, to fight Milton Obote II, whom he accused of rigging the December 1980 election.
It’s therefore, not a coincidence that Mr Museveni, 71, always launches his election campaigns in Luweero and he returns to the triangle today to begin his campaign as he seeks to extend his grip on power beyond 30 years.
However, he will not only need endurance and luck but a message that has resonance beyond the lasting vestiges of the 1981-1985 bush struggle.
Makerere University political science don Sabiti Makara opines that the choice of Luweero is a well-choreographed political move by Mr Museveni to assert his historical connection to the area but also consolidate the central region vote, a make or break affair for the incumbent.
Dr Makara says: “There is the historical attachment but other factors are at play. Mr Museveni enjoys support in Luweero which recently has been shaken as exemplified by the election of a DP Woman MP. So going there today is to say I am bouncing back.”
Luweero stirs up nostalgia and before the story of the struggle can be dumped on the ash heap of history, it continues to unfold in an uncanny way.
In the 2016 election, Mr Museveni faces two former comrades of the bush struggle – his implacable political foe, Dr Kizza Besigye and his erstwhile close ally turned competitor, former premier Amama Mbabazi.
Dr Besigye was a personal physician to the President while Mr Mbabazi run the covert cells in the region during the bush struggle.
Today, the duo believe Museveni has since departed from the path he trudged and not anymore the beacon of hope.
It’s the duo that could taint the Luweero credo anchored on liberation and democracy as the President seeks to rule for 35 years.
However, Minister without Portfolio Abraham Byandala told Daily Monitor that whereas Dr Besigye and Mr Mbabazi chose to part ways with President Museveni – “Internal contradictions are healthy in any political organisation. If you cannot listen to the majority you go and let others take on the mantle”.
Luweero is a drab town and while other backwaters sprung to life and are prosperous, the political mecca of the NRM struggle is still enveloped by poverty.
However, Luweero District NRM flag bearer Ronald Ndawula says whereas there are some concerns about prosperity, Mr Museveni’s government ushered in peace, which other regimes failed to deliver.
It is a view shared by Mr Byandala who argues that Ugandans who lived under violent regimes cannot take this for granted.
Ms Sarah Kagingo, Mr Museveni’s assistant on social media, says, “The NRM manifesto is hinged on job creation and taking Uganda off to a middle income economy. In essence there is symbolic significance in starting the battle for a middle income country in the same area he started the battle to liberate Uganda.”
Yet there are fears that Mr Museveni’s halo in the heartland of his bush struggle has begun to slip.
The hotly-contested by-election for the Luweero Woman MP seat that pitted Ms Brenda Nabukenya against Ms Rebecca Nalwanga where Museveni personally campaigned for the NRM flag bearer shows a changing political landscape.
Mr Museveni did not take the defeat lying down, he would later pen an 11-page missive accusing the Opposition of rigging.
“…elements from the Opposition, totally lacking in ideology or mission other than thirst for power and money, engage in rigging where the NRM vigilance goes down. I have got information to this effect – in the case of the by-elections in Bushenyi, Entebbe, Kasese and just the other day, in Luweero. In Kampala it has been habitual,” he ranted.
In an earlier interview with Daily Monitor, Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago said the decision to undercut the President’s support in Luweero is by design.
“The cradle of NRM is Luweero where he [Museveni] launched his guerilla war and it has never recovered from the destruction of that protracted war. Recently we made inroads into the Movement by winning two by-elections and that is no mean achievement,” said Lukwago.
In his first major campaign speech in Luweero today, Mr Museveni is expected to talk about the obstacles to prosperity, boasting how he ended sectarianism and united the country, returned peace and stability blasting his main challengers in the presidential race, (Dr Besigye and Mr Mbabazi), criticising them as “opportunists,” who deserted the struggle for selfish reasons.
Mr Museveni is expected to address rallies in Kapeeka, Ngoma and Semuto, among others.
On Wednesday, Mr Museveni will be in Nakasongola District, another NRM clamp.
After rallies in Luweero, Nakaseke and Nakasongola districts, Mr Museveni is expected to move to Lango sub-region on Thursday, starting with Amolatar District.
Salim Saleh on ground
Perhaps more than any other NRM fighter, President Museveni’s brother Salim Saleh could provide a soft-landing for the President. In 2013, he sold his property in Entebbe to start Namunkekera Rural Industrial Complex and has since positioned himself in Kapeeka, Nakaseke, a district carved out of the greater Luweero Triangle. When veterans and families who incurred losses in the war were not seeing eye to eye with the regime, thanks to a horde of unfulfilled promises, Gen Saleh kicked off an aggressive campaign to facilitate veterans and widows, take their children to school and improve their household incomes.
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