South Africa. (News Of The South) – Since the Donald Trump administration called for a suspension of foreign aid in January 2025, the global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) response has been experiencing significant setbacks, ranging from increased mortality and a rise in new HIV infections to the development of resistance to treatment. Despite implementing a partial waiver a few weeks after the announcement, many programs were unable to resume operations at full capacity, leading to service disruptions in several countries. South Africa has been particularly affected, with funding cuts resulting in a rapid decline in HIV testing in the country, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
The suspension of US foreign aid has impacted critical global health initiatives such as the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). South Africa’s National Health Laboratories Service reported a 21% decline in HIV viral load testing among key groups like pregnant women during March-April 2025. This decline is mainly due to a significant reduction in healthcare workers, as PEPFAR funded the salaries of 15,000 South African workers, and the closure of NGO-run clinics has worsened the situation.
It has been reported that the testing rates for many vulnerable populations, such as pregnant women and young adults and teens (ages 15-24), have significantly decreased since the US cut foreign aid. Specifically, testing among pregnant women has dropped by 21.3%, and among young adults and teens by 17.2%.
Selena Yu, Senior Medical Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Therefore, if this trend continues with a year-over-year decline in testing, not only will the HIV testing market shrink, but the total testable population will also decrease due to a lack of medical access. The reduction in testing is a direct consequence of the diminished support, which has had a profound impact on the ability to monitor and manage health concerns within these groups. It is imperative to address this issue promptly to ensure the well-being of these at-risk populations.”
GlobalData estimates the total HIV testing market in South Africa, excluding multiparameter testing, to reach over $60 million and 28 million tests by 2036. If testing rates continue to fall, the market value and volume can even drop to $8 million and just over 3 million tests by 2036. This does not take into account the growing number of patients with HIV who go untested.
Yu concludes: “A drop from 28 million to 3 million tests in just over a decade is extreme and would require current conditions to continue. This prediction can be worsened as prevalence number decrease year-over-year due to patients with HIV unable to access treatment and passing. There is a dire need for more tests in medium and high HIV risk countries, but the lack of funding is the largest barrier to overcome.”
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