Harare, Zimbabwe (News of the South)-Attempts at overcoming the DRC’s simmering political crisis are all but dead and buried as President Joseph Kabila declared last month that 2017 elections will not be possible, thereby contradicting a deal he signed last New Year’s Eve that said the opposite.
Corneille Nangaa, head of the Electoral Commission, announced that due to logistical and budgetary complications arising from badly updated registration records, with a possible 7 million young voters not included, holding an election this year is not achievable.
Kabila’s opponents, however, see the move as a continuation of what is fast becoming known as glissement or ‘slippage’, where he finds excuses to cling to power, all the while mobilising and entrenching his patrimonial structures.
Ida Sawyer, Central Africa Director at Human Rights Watch, said: “We’ve seen one excuse after another for why elections haven’t been able to be organised yet.”
Similarly, Félix Tshisekedi, newly appointed leader of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) opposition party, did not mince his words when he said it was: “A declaration of war on the Congolese people.”
Kabila flip-flops
Kabila was constitutionally obliged to step down in December 2016 but clung to office by citing electoral roll issues, arguing the election would come; just not yet.
Following widespread violence, particularly in Goma and Lubumbashi, Kabila was pushed into a 31 December deal mediated by the Catholic Church, which stipulated that elections were to be held by the end of 2017 and that he would not run himself or try and change the constitution.
This agreement was widely lauded by the international community in a country which has never seen a peaceful transition of power.
However, a darkening cloud quickly appeared on the horizon as Kabila then backtracked and stated there would be no such election.
In a rare interview with German publication Der Spiegel, Kabila did not deny the possibility of a third term and gave no concrete idea of when or if the next election will come.
Divided opposition
Opposition to Kabila ranges from instituted political parties to violent separatist insurgencies on the ground. No consensus has been built and Kabila has – at times – cleverly exploited the space remaining.
A major crack emerged in the largest opposition party, the UDPS, following the death of its fabled leader, Etienne Tshisekedi, earlier this year.
Tshisekedi had co-founded the party in 1982 and it was the first organised opposition movement against Mobotu Sese Seko. His son, Félix Tshisekedi, has now taken command, but in a country blighted by ruling families, many see this move as improper and it is causing the party to splinter.
Some believe that the lack of a strong opposition ultimately led Kabila and his People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) to ignore the December agreement, seeing no need for compromise.
Moreover, Kabila has overtly exploited the fractures by naming a previously high-profile UDPS deserter, Bruno Tshibala, as prime minister in early April. The former deputy secretary general of the UDPS fell out with his party over the appointment of Félix Tshisekedi as leader, and consequently went to work under Kabila. Incorporating opposition rebels into Kabila’s fold is a move that has worked well for Kabila as it delegitimises the opposition party as well as exposing their fissures and weaknesses.
Ida Sawyer of Human Rights Watch said: “Many people in the population are increasingly disenchanted by their political leaders, including the opposition, as they feel that most of them are only interested in their personal position and getting posts. The debate about who would become prime minister was also felt to be a mere distraction from focussing on pushing for elections to happen and to distract from Kabila not showing any real will to step down.”
The only real group left with the weight to oppose Kabila democratically, is the Catholic Church of DRC, which was instrumental in brokering the New Year’s Eve deal in 2016.
However, now that arrangement has been broken, they seem to be at the end of their tether and have recently called on the Congolese to stand up and take their destiny into their own hands, squarely putting the blame for the county’s failures on the continual delay of elections.
Many hope for the return of Moïse Katumbi, one-time governor of the mineral-rich Katanga Province and a popular opposition figure, who was forced into exile in 2016, accused of hiring foreign mercenaries to overthrow Kabila.
The Economist named Katumbi the second most powerful man in the DRC, and like a fireman rushing back into a burning building, he is expected, at some point, to return and provide real opposition to Kabila.-NewAfrica
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