By Makonya Lloyd.
Harare, Zimbabwe. (News of The South) – Zanu Pf in any election goes in as the team to beat and this election proved no different. With their backs to the wall, cornered the party always seems to get the best out of them at times like these.
The MDC alliance under Nelson Chamisa proved the only realistic next government in waiting but despite all their cries after the election did they really appeal to the populace? Here is my individual analysis on their attempt to be the ruling party.
The pre-election period was crucial for both parties with first, the demise of Mugabe and secondly the death of Morgan Tsvangirai who were 2 of the prominent figures in Zimbabwe’s modern politics. Mugabe’s continued stay in power was a universally agreed fact that it was a liability to the country and going with him to an election would not only be detrimental to the party but the country and the Southern African region. Restore legacy brought sanity back to the party and all other interested stakeholders alike saw it as a temporary relief to the 37 tyrannical Mugabe rule. In the wake of it Emerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa emerged the new leader and with it he shed off his brutal and thuggish image to being people’s redeemer of some sort .Along the way he gained some degree of respect not fear this time even from the urban populace who had viewed him with resentment over the years a calculative, dangerous politician. He quickly realigned the contentious indigenisation law and was slowly becoming acceptable to the West a key player in African political dynamics.
Across the fence the MDC-T, a formidable political force since independence led by an ailing but charismatic leader was reeling from internal politics. So good a party at its formation it had continuously mutated as egos got the better of reason albeit Morgan remained the popular face. Not going back much into history but the first political mistake Dr Morgan Tsvangirai did was to single handedly appoint Nelson and Mudzuri into the presidium to equal them with Dr Khupe a fiery Bulawayo politician selected at congress. Chamisa had lost at the 2014 elective congress to Mwonzora to become Secretary General of the party MDC-T. Chamisa however wasn’t in the political wilderness for long, as he had become too powerful to become an ordinary card carrying member with main support coming from the youths who were to be a key constituency in the 2018 vote. As Tsvangirai’s health continuously deteriorated, so did the leadership crisis become eminent. Sadly he never lived another day to solve it.
Power Grab
Meanwhile before Morgan’s body came to Zimbabwe for burial Nelson had literally grabbed power, coup of some sort. Challenges and counter challenges ensued as Dr Khupe rightfully claimed a constitutional right to lead the party by virtue of having being legitimately elected or picked at congress. By the time Morgan passed on its all clear he had hopped into political marriages with several of his former partners in the MDC namely Tendai Biti and Prof Welshman Ncube to form an alliance which they believed would topple Mugabe’s tyrannical rule. When Nelson grabbed power from Dr Khupe and Mudzuri so did he fill in the vacuum in the alliance left Morgan. This proved to be a dangerous mistake for a party that had seen enough of splits and Nelson was prepared to create enemies from his former friends.Surely, politics has no permanent friends though the Alliance proved politics has no permanent enemies either.
Campaign
No doubt Chamisa proved popular with the young people especially the urbanites but did his message resonate across the divide maybe not .His speech of bullet trains and airports was visionary but not what the Zimbabwean populace needed for now especially the rural voters who by the voters roll constituted 65% of the eligible voting population vote. They needed seed for their farming activities, they needed someone to tell them about jobs and the security of their land, they needed someone to tell them about solutions to their poverty among a plethora of other needs. Zanu PF knew this and straight away got to it. ED as the Zimbabwean president is affectionately known talked about jobs, farming inputs came earlier than before and their spider web strategy to rural voters worked to maximum effect. Instead of relying on rallies in stadiums alone their strategy started at cell level.Rugeje the Zanu PF political commissar could be seen addressing 20 people at a cell mobilization meeting denoting how they understood the political matrix at play. The rural vote rigging aside has always been the swing vote in many elections starting 1980.Its difficult to ignore the strong bond between Zanu PF and the rural masses going back to the days of the liberation struggle. Even though the voting age group was much younger they always relate to the liberation war mantra and it has always been key. Meanwhile the Alliance was concentrating on its already strong bases the urban centres without a clear cut strategy to influence the critical rural vote besides addressing them at deceiving mass rallies. Coupled with little resources, being dumped by traditional funders from the west and simmering internal fights the Alliance surely was doomed to not achieving the majority vote.
Primary elections
The biggest difference for me came during the primaries of both parties. Zanu PF conducted their own first and in areas were arguments ensued they were quickly resolved in whatever way still they were solved quickly. The Alliance took ages to conduct primaries and when they did, how chaotic. Dangamvura/Chikanga constituency for example took almost a month to resolve and a lot of enemies were created along the way. Many other constituencies in their strongest support bases had protracted arguments.
Jessie Majome a veteran of the party could not hold it she decided to stand as an independent candidate. Did Nelson create enemies along the way to his presidency ascendency? I say yes he did. Khupe broke away together with Gutu. Mwonzora held on and Mudzuri endured but the writing was on the wall that it was not all rosy. His handling of the primaries was seen as payback time to those who didn’t support his bid for the SG’s post and a lot felt aggrieved they were left in the cold to freeze. Time had been lost arguing and by the time issues seemed resolved the envisioned bullet train had left the station.
Time
Boasting of having conducted over 70 rallies in 2 months seemed an achievement but surely it was strenuous and never thorough from the Alliance. It meant the approach was hurried and never comprehensive. The Alliance never connected to the grassroots. There was no commissar like Rugeje to do the dirty work for the party. Aspiring candidates within the Alliance were busy fighting internal fights at the expense of spreading the SMART message worse more to counter the Zanu PF’s spider web strategy at cell level.
Media
As expected the state broadcaster didn’t help him to be honest but it was much improved than during Morgan’s time .However Morgan at his peak fared better in such adversities. Then later came the Trump exaggerations, the Kagame claims, the Hard Talk interview and his sister’s bet to ED the mature voter even within urban strongholds debated on his political maturity. A section of the once loyal supporters began to sit on the fence but the continuous economic struggles however swayed the loyalists back in his favour albeit many were and still are sceptic of Nelson’s leadership attributes. Many thought he is more of an effective student activist than big stage politician.
Rural vote again
It’s difficult not to give reference to the rural vote again after the banter they are receiving for entrusting more Zanu Pf Mps with their vote. Honestly their vote should be respected because we are advocating for a democratic space. They believed in the message that appealed to them more. One prominent lawyer summed it all up in a Facebook post and I quote,” It must be known that the interests and priorities of ordinary rural Zimbabweans is different from that of the urban populace. Sometimes the interests coincide but most of the time they differ .The electoral choices of either group ought to be respected and not ridiculed or treated with contempt or hostility. Our rights increase in value when we respect the choices of others. The diatribe against rural voters going on now is neither acceptable and is totally anti-democracy”
Conclusion
The numbers show that the Alliance need to do more to encourage the urbanites to vote, they need a clear cut strategy to influence the rural vote not after 5years but start now. The space is there for opposition parties to maneuver but constant splits and ideological emptiness will always cost the urbanites their preferred choices not to say it’s the best choice after all. Ultimately ED won the presidential vote as announced with 50.8% of the vote despite the debate around Nelson’s claims of rigging but for now its game, set and match Zanu PF. To say it plainly the Alliance was ill prepared for such a watershed and important election. It’s yet another long wait for the urban voter, a painful experience for the Alliance ‘virgin’ first time voters but for the majority of the rural voter the status quo remains and so with it their ‘party of choice’.
For most observers however the election was Free, Credible & #ED pfee(fair)
The writer expresses his own views and opinions without representing any political affiliations or speaking on behalf of any candidate. Contacts: tmakonya@gmail.com; +263 77 3 791 417
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