President Uhuru Kenyatta’s numbers seem to be dropping – a result of a tight economic environment at home and major security lapses in Kenya in 2013. He began his presidency under a cloud of self doubt and ongoing criminal proceedings at the International Criminal Court. These proceedings tested the legitimacy of the Kenyan government headed by two ICC indictees, but as time wore on, it tested the legitimacy of the Rome Statute as well.
As 2013 wound down, the ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda began walking back from a charade of charges, admitting that key testimony admitted during the confirmation hearings could not stand the high evidentiary burden in a criminal trial. No one questions the unforgettable and unforgivable bloodletting that followed the December 2007 elections.
What has been questioned over and over has been the fairness of the process that broke many scruples; unreliable witnesses. As the list of accused began to whittle down, the ICC found itself becoming a political court and at inopportune times like the aftermath of the Westgate bloodbath, found the court inserting itself in the internal political affairs of a sovereign country.
Now with the ICC puzzle partly resolved, President Kenyatta has taken the mantle of the chairmanship of the EAC summit and seems to have handled his first regional crisis well – committing the warring sides in South Sudan to peace talks. A commitment to peace talks does not come with all the bells and whistles of a ceasefire and so on. Warring parties are eager to gain territory and leverage before arriving at the table. Negotiations in South Sudan are likely to be long and treacherous. Riek Machar, the head of the insurgent movement, has a long history of insurgency himself. Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), while unhappy with Salva Kiir, may have second thoughts of a 50 per cent power give-away to an insurgency given the long history it took for SPLM to acquire political power and independence from Sudan.
Mr Kenyatta’s other regional colleagues in Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda are saddled with a history of involvement in the other big regional conflict, the DRC. So, Rwanda’s pass at the chairmanship of the Summit may have been wise. Rwanda and South Sudan don’t share a border but similarly don’t enjoy close political ties either.
When it comes to negotiation, Kenyatta has stronger credentials at fostering power sharing or coalition building, this being the dominant method in Kenya than all of his regional colleagues. In Uganda, power sharing today is interpreted more as window dressing rather than conciliatory. Uganda’s opposition is fragmented and has been splintered in the rough and tumble of Uganda’s politics.
In Kenya, the current duo in charge have had the experience of being both in power and in the opposition. In Rwanda and Burundi, no such opposition exists. In Tanzania, President Kikwete has spent his entire life in the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party rising through its ranks and CCM, with the exception of Zanzibar, he has not had to deal with as large an internal political fallout as that facing Salva Kiir.
For Kenyans, this new role will come with a lot of costs. Already East Africa’s largest economy, Kenya’s better run economy, has been growing faster in real terms than her neighbours. In 2013, Uganda read a $3.5 billion budget; Kenya ministerial statement in March 2013 was a $17 billion outlay and Tanzania came in at $13 billion. Rwanda clocked in at $ 2 billion. Nothing represents Kenya’s economic prowess more in the region than its total domination of air travel through Kenya Airways; wholesale and distribution through the expansion of Nakumatt and Uchumi and the preferential position enjoyed by Kenyan workers in the region.
This power is likely to translate into dominant positions in infrastructure and engineering, banking and finance where Kenya is home to a number of powerful indigenous banks. Mediocrity and laggards are likely to breed resentment. Already, the community has been feeling this kind of sentiment. Some of these voices come from Tanzania but from the figures, Tanzania has been doing a better job at closing the gap than Uganda.
Internal conflict is part of poverty politics and poverty economics. Poorer countries tend to be unstable internally. Poorer countries spend more per capita on military hardware than hospitals and schools; and this is felt in many respects. Kenya still has its share of the poor but the poorer East Africans will be looking at Mr Kenyatta as well. The prestige of power already has gotten Kenyatta’s opponents in Kenya jealous with rage. One of them, Mr Raila Odinga, struggling to remain relevant, has, in an indirect rebuke to Kenyatta, gone after Museveni asking him to stay out of Kenyan politics. It goes without saying that Mr Odinga rather than Mr Kenyatta is the one who showed up at Mr Museveni’s footsteps in the 2011 general election.
Closing the eye without shutting down the brain is likely to be one of Kenyatta’s big regional responsibilities in 2014. Mr Ssemogerere, an Attorney-at-Law and an Advocate. kssemoge@gmail.com- Saturday Monitor
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